Konservatism på glid

Så är Trumps tid som president äntligen slut. Angreppet mot Capitolium lyckades inte hindra att Biden blev bekräftad som USAs nästa president. Istället får Trump lämna Washington utan parader och den mediala uppmärksamhet han alltid eftersträvat. 

I sitt installationstal lovade Trump att stoppa "This American carnage". Istället var det just den sortens kaos han själv orsakade när de huliganer som han eggat till attack stormade Capitolium. Den process som kulminerade 6 januari började många år innan Trump tillträdde som president.  Det är en lång utveckling eller snarare medvetet arbete som har skapat den enorma polariseringen av det amerikanska samhället. Det republikanska partiet har i många år drivits allt längre högerut.  Ett sönderbrutet medialandskap med ultrakonservativa talk shows hosts plus FoxNews som propagandakanal har skapat en alternativ verklighet där konspirationsteorier florerar. Genom att driva frågan om abortmotstånd har man också lyckats radikalisera den kristna högern. Detta samtidigt som myten om "American exceptionalism" har fått många att bortse från bristerna i den amerikanska demokratin. Den alltid hyllade konstitutionen är inte uppdaterad för att klara dagens utmaningar. 

Att USA inte har gjort upp med att det är ett land med en grund i rasism, slaveri och våld mot ursprungsbefolkningen är en viktig anledning till det som nu hänt. Många i Sverige som velat förklara Trumps framgångar har bortsett denna rasism med sin grund i Jim Crow-lagar som bara hjälpligt åtgärdades under medborgarrättsrörelsen på 1960-talet. Polisvåld med återkommande dödsskjutningar av svarta skapade Black Lives Matter som en reaktion på denna ojämlikhet och rasism, men har ofta mötts av än mer våld. Det blev uppenbart vid attacken mot Capitolium att brott och straff är relativa begrepp, när vita inhemska terrorister bemöttes helt annorlunda än sommarens BLM-demonstrationer. 

Utvecklingen i USA har varit tydlig för den som velat se. Många har varnat för utvecklingen och på senare år har Sarah Kendzior varit en av de tydligaste rösterna. I boken "Hiding in plain sight" ger hon en tydlig bakgrund till Trumps väg till makten och hur den grundlagts via radikaliseringen av det republikanska partiet i kombination med ren kriminalitet och rysk påverkan. Läs den och lyssna på podden @gaslitnation!

I ljuset av det som hänt i USA behöver vi se vart utvecklingen kan leda oss i Sverige om vi inte tar varningssignalerna om ökande högerextremism på allvar. Med framväxten av Sverigedemokraterna har vi fått ett parti som velat ge Nobels fredspris till Trump och vars ledare fortfarande efter attacken mot demokratin hade velat se en fortsatt Trump-regim vid makten. SD målbild är att skapa en "illiberal demokrati" av Ungersk modell i Sverige. Frågan har varit hur långt ut i periferin  våra mer traditionella högerkonservativa partier som moderaterna (inte längre nya) och KD (kristna bara till namnet) velat vandra i sin rätt misslyckade jakt efter SD-väljare.  Svaret verkar vara att M under ledning av Ulf Kristersson har gått från att lova förintelseöverlevaren Hedi Fried att inte samarbeta med nazister till att nu vara fullt beredd att sätta sig i regering med SD. 

Så vad är det då moderaterna vill förutom att ha makten till snart sagt varje pris? En del av svaret ges i moderaternas nya idéprogram som det refereras i en artikel av Sven-Eric Liedman. Där står saker som att ”Sverige är format av ett kristet socialt och kulturellt arv som sträcker sig mycket långt tillbaka”. Ja, ”Sverige är en av världens äldsta nationalstater”. En trygg familj gör barnen till ”starka vuxna” men individen har också ett ansvar ”för sig själv, sina nära och vårt samhälle”. Ja, individen måste också göra sig ”anställningsbar” och därmed smidigt anpassa sig till den rådande arbetsmarknaden. Arbetslinjen gäller fortfarande.

Det är intressant att ha moderaternas idéprogram i tankarna under en läsning av Jason Stanleys "Facismens metoder". 

Stanley skriver mycket om hur fascistiska ideal drivs av drömmen om det förflutna, en mytisk tid då allt var bättre. "Make America Great Again" var Trumps paroll, men när detta "again" inträffade var oklart, lika dunkelt som det moderata "långt tillbaka". Att prata om hotet från det mångkulturella och främmande har varit budskapet från SD i många år och har allt mer inlemmats i det moderata tankegodset

Men som Stanley skriver, "När vissa grupper utesluts ur gemenskapen hämmas övriga medborgares empatiska förmåga".  En Trump-väljare från Florida som inte var nöjd uttryckte detta tydligt:  He’s not hurting the people he needs to be hurting.

Det hon ville ha var rätten att sparka nedåt, att känna sig lite bättre än andra. Så när det pratas om "ekonomiska" orsaker till att människor röstat på Trump eller SD så måste vi våga skärskåda det argumentet. Om det bara handlar om rätten att behålla sina egna privilegier på bekostnad av andra, finns ingen lösning som innebär att gå dessa åsikter till mötes. De argumenten behöver istället bemötas och liksom trollen tas fram i ljuset. 

Frågan är om M och KD vill låta sig dras åt samma håll som republikanerna i USA, med eller motvilligt? Riskerna är stora, den som försöker rida på tigern tenderar att bli uppäten, något som vi sett nu och sett i historien. Per Svensson refererar i DN till Herbert Tingsten som analyserade Mussolinis väg till makten i boken ”Från parlamentarism till diktatur. Fascismens erövring av Italien”, som gavs ut redan 1930. Tingsten pekade särskilt på hur de italienska liberalerna gav fascismen ”flankbetäckning”, hjälpte till att göra svartskjortorna rumsrena. Tingstens dom var hård: ”De bidrogo härigenom, mer än några andra, att underlätta fascismens slutliga fullständiga seger.”

Självklart finns det tänkande konservativa moderater som har kloka ideér och som jag fullt ut respekterar även när jag inte håller med om deras politik. Men så länge partiets ledning är beredda att sälja sin (eventuella) själ för att nå statsministerposten behöver tyvärr moderaternas demokratiska trovärdighet betvivlas. 

A walk in the park

 The past weekend, on the last sunny summer Sunday afternoon, I had decided to go for a run. But the balmy weather instead inspired me to take a walk in Botaniska, the Gothenburg botanical garden, which is located a mere 2 km from the city centre. Botaniska is embedded in a nature reserve, with a fluid border between the two. I’m glad that I decided for a walk, because it gave some important insights which I would not have been able to pickup, had I as planned been running through the same surroundings.

 

The first insight I got from looking at the explosive colour choreography exhibited by the Dahlia flowerbeds. There, the extraordinary shapes and neon colours made the flowers look “unnatural”, even though they were merely expressing some of natures ability to excel in form and fragrance. Nature itself in the form of bees were intensely attracted to flowers, loading up pollen to bring back to the hive. 

The second insight I got walking along the winding paths in the rock garden. There I could observe a more subdued form of nature, with moss and leafs covering the stones. To see the hidden beauty there, I had to look down, to slow down to take in and appreciate what I saw.

This brings me to my third insight which is intrinsically linked to the Corona time we are living in. To stop the virus from spreading we are trying to give each other physical space and social distance. Therefore, I had to step aside to let others pass and someone else needed to wait for me. This creates a common possibility to slow down, something we should appreciate and keep even when the pandemic has gone away.

As I left Botaniska and ventured out into the nature reserve, I started to see the 30-40 year old manboys on their MTBs, cycling determinedly and with head down through the forest. I wanted to yell at them “Hey, slow down, step off your bike, take of your helmet and be here, instead of speeding to your next goal”. But they kept whisking by.

There are hard times ahead, with the ongoing Corona crisis, the accelerating climate crisis and the political crisis with rise of right wing nationalists. To meet these challenges and prepare for a better and more just world, we have to understand that we need to be in the nature, that we are a part of nature. We need nature to survive as much for our minds as for food. We are still natural biological beings, despite all the technological gadgets we carry around,

Accepting oneself as a being a part of nature will be difficult for those who have been attracted the fake news promoted by some politicians but also to the synthetic and technological world where nature is something to be subdued and conquered. It takes courage to shut down the lights and take a walk in the dark. When I slow down I find new paths and new directions even in this forest where I have been running so many times. I can put away my phone and see the details around me and listen to the silence. 

Nature is now in its recharge time, when both plants and animals are filling up their reserves to sustain the winter and be ready for the coming spring. So while the dwindling evening light and the cooler evenings may make us sad, we should take this as a personal inspiration to recharge mentally and physically. There will be hard fights ahead if we are to keep our civility and our connection to each other.  

Gathering strength for the coming winter also means to be prepared, be mentally as well as physically prepared but also to be organised. To be organised and connected was the core message in a recent @GaslitNation podcast. We need to be prepared, we must not be caught off guard. 

Nature is resilient when given space and time. We need to find our own pauses to be as resilient.

 

 

 

 

 

PS

Thanks to Bar La Lune for good pause environment

Going viral 3 - Comittement, change and collaboration

(This is my third text on the Corona virus / Covid19 epidemic, see previous posts on the blog)

We are in a global pandemic crisis and countries are heading into a lock down, closed border survival state. Everyone tries to find ways to avoid the Italian situation where hospitals are overwhelmed with critically ill patients. The situation is likely to become even worse in countries with less developed health care system, or as in USA where lack of paid sick leave in combination with high individual costs will make people stay away from necessary care. We have NOT seen the worst yet!

It will be a long and hard time ahead before we see any kind of turn for the better. What combination of ordered and voluntary containment that will be needed, how bad the situation will become and how many that will die we just don’t know yet. What’s making this worse is that we are in a triple crisis, as was discussed on Gaslit Nation this week. The combination of authoritarian and incompetent “leaders” with the accelerating climate breakdown contributes to making the Corona crisis so much worse. 

That's the struggle against autocracy. That's the struggle against the climate crisis. That's now the struggle against a pandemic in a world where most countries don't have the healthcare apparatus and or the transparency of government necessary to prevent a large scale human tragedy.

There is a high risk that authoritarian regimes will try to use corona created chaos to enhance their power and financial gains in the midst of the turmoil. Today there was a report from newspaper Welt am Sonntag that Trump has tried to lay his small hands on a potential vaccine being developed in German, in order to use it exclusively in USA. At a time when collaboration and cooperation is what is needed, men like Trump, Bolsonaro, MSB and Putin will not be able to look beyond there personal power and gains. That is a crisis as bad as Corona itself. When Saudi Arabia is waging a price war on oil that threatens to further escalate the economic crisis, Trump sees it as chance to fill up with cheap oil. 

So what can we do and how do we act? We will need a countermovement and a new direction in order to not just to survive but to transform our societies for a better future. I find inspiration in how Italians confined to their homes have been singing on their balconies rather than stay silent in despair. As Eric Holthaus wrote in a recent post about climate change and what we need to have more climate action it’s trust in mutual aid, not competition, that could form the basis of a new collective story: "I would have to trust others a lot more than I already do.”

Sadly, at the moment we can watch the lack of trust in Europe, where countries within the EU are keeping critical medical equipment to themselves. It would probably been much better also for the rest of Europe if Italy had received the support it asked for. Even better would be if EU would be proactively equipped to handle crisis like this. But if governments are not able to handle this kind of solidarity, likely we as citizens need to finds way to create the kind of collaboration that we will need for the future to meet both the Corona crisis and the climate breakdown. 

We will need to tell a better story that can lead us forward. It will not be simple story of happily ever after story, it will be a story that also includes struggles and losses. However, both human history and our collective storytelling shows us so many occasions where mankind has rissen to the challenge. 

We will need a transformation to a society that can adsorb the challenges ahead without falling apart. The last year I have been given the opportunity to be involved in the regional development strategy for the region of Västra Götaland in Sweden. Three keywords in the forthcoming strategy have suddenly become eerily important and also scalable on the global level: 

• Robust
• Inclusive 
• Fossil Free

Robust - There will be more challenges ahead, a new pandemic like Corona or rapid sea level rise that inundates our coastal regions. There could be other completely unknown Black Swans that we need to deal with. To sustain these kind of challenges we can not run our societies, our companies or ourselves at the limit of capacity, because then every extra straw will break the camels back. 

Inclusive - At the moment we can foresee that the Corona crisis will hit the most vulnerable hardest. The same is true for climate change. We need to distribute the burden far more equitable than what we have seen during the last two decades. A world for the 1% is not sustainable for anyone.

Fossil free - Getting of rid of our dependence on coal, oil and gas is not only a given if we want to have a stable climate, it is also necessary for a stable global economy. A world where the power of both fossil fuel companies like Exon, Shell and BP as well as petrostates like Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran will be a better world for everybody. 

The young climate movement has during the last 18 months been able to make both climate change and climate justice subjects that have been discussed at the highest level, from the UN to World Economic Forum. We need to harness the same energy in dealing with the ongoing corona crisis. It is a crisis, but if we can sustain the immediate crisis it is also an opportunity to rebuild in a far better way than the system that brought us to this brink. Whether we call it Great New Deal or something else is irrelevant. But wise governments and leaders should not throw good money after and try business that have outlived their time. The era of weekend shopping flights and mass consumerism fuelled by oil will need to stop now. Corona may show us in a brutal way what we can live without. What we need now is both leaders and social movements to help us discover what we need instead. 

Going viral 2 - Corona, climate and collapse

My previous blog post was about Corona, how we stumbled into a pandemic and why some countries more than others (especially USA) have missed the opportunity to contain the crisis.

Even though we are only in the beginning of the Corona pandemic, there are already lessons to be learned and parallels to be drawn. Some of them relate to the connection between Corona and climate change. It is clear that the decrease in emissions due to lowered industrial activity have had a marked impact on CO2 emissions. Furthermore, it might well be that the reduction in particle emissions due to reduced traffic and combustion actually savedmore lives than those killed by the virus (which of course is not a good way to solve the pollution problem).

There are of course also economical effects. The slowdown in transports from both less cars and trucks on the ground and far fewer flights in the air has caused plummeting sales of cars. Airlines are bleeding economically and some are going bankrupt. Still, the long term effects on travel might be even bigger. The big pharma company AstraZeneca was already far ahead before this crisis, conducting 20,000 video and telephone meetings per week. Others will now need to adapt quickly and rapidly start to move towards a non-travel meeting culture. What the lasting effects on business travel patterns will be remains to be seen. But it is unlikely that once companies have gotten used to running virtual meeting they will go back to spending money and their employees time on long flights for short meetings. So even if the corona crisis eventually subsides, the airline industry  might not make a full comeback. 

Presently central banks and governments are pouring money into the financial system in order to shore up companies whose business has came to a standstill due to the pandemic. But as the airline example shows this may well be throwing good money after bad. We need transformation not return to an outgoing business model that is not compatible with a liveable climate. It’s not only a question of emissions and pollution. Anthropogenic climate change and biodiversity destruction is one of the factors behind pandemics with a zoonotic cause, as habitat destruction and increasing temperatures are pushing wildlife too close to humans. Ebola, SARS, MERS and Covid19 all have a common denominator in that it was a disease that jumped from animals to humans. Still, we fail to see this link, but also don’t grasp that while Corona infection is an imminent threat, climate change is already the big disruptor which will only get more dangerous in years to come.

While coronavirus is understandably treated as an imminent danger, the climate crisis is still presented as an abstraction whose consequences are decades away. Unlike an illness, it is harder to visualise how climate breakdown will affect us each as individuals.

There is another link between Corona and climate change. Despite a likely reduction in CO2 due to less energy used, the reduction in aerosols can paradoxically result in a jump in temperatures, since the particle formed during combustion shields some of the incoming sunlight. Considering the already hot start of 2020, with the warmest winter on record in Europe while Australia endured record heat, droughts and fires, even an small increase in temperature could be very bad. A worst case scenario would be that in the summer we are hit by heatwaves and droughts at a time when both public resources and population have been worn down by the Covid19 pandemic. If so, there is a huge risk that this would lead to calls for "strong leaders" when it is instead strong leadership we need.

Trump will veer toward the edge of the cliff here and his cult of followerswill go with him. There’s no choice now for the Trump faithful. To admit he is incompetent and at all responsible now would be a devastating blow to their reality that might destroy their lives. There will be vast conspiracies, drumbeats of unnecessary war, scapegoating of political rivals, and a demonization and dehumanization of vulnerable populations.

And while most people are showing responsible behaviour and are willing to accept sacrifices for the common good, solidarity seems to disappear with increase wealth, as the super-rich jet off to disaster bunkers amid coronavirus outbreak. So what do we need to do in order to change the course we are on? Stay tuned, this is a crisis to good to be wasted! 

Going viral 1 - How did we get into this mess?

Two months ago the Corona virus was not the recurring breaking news or the given subject of lunch talks at work. Today we are in the midst of the Covid19 epidemic, or rather pandemic as it was designated yesterday by the World Health Organisation. We don’t know yet how this will play out, if there will be a reduction of infections come spring in the northern hemisphere or if this virus will continue to wreak havoc for many months ahead. Even countries and regions with well organised health care system such at northern Italy are now reeling under the pressure of the sheer number of patients. Overworked doctors and nurses are trying to cope, trying to decide who among their many elderly patients should be put on a ventilator in order to be given a chance to recover.

The response in China was initially hailed as being forceful and effective, even if it was deemed a bit “harsh”. But it has become increasingly clear that the attempts to suppress information about the virus outbreak in the early phase had severe consequences. The response was delayed and the virus infection was not contained in Wuhan but instead allowed to spread over China. From China the Corona virus has taken multiple routes over the world and with our efficient ways of travel the virus is now criss-crossing the world. In Italy, the epidemic started with a “super-spreader” whose diagnosis was initially missed since he had no apparent contacts with China. By now, is hard to distinguish hot spots from general global spread, thus this is really a pandemic.

From a Swedish perspective just yesterday new initiative were launched attempting to slow the Covid19 tsunami. If we are lucky, we just might be able to avoid the Italian situation. But it’s not looking good for the normally so healthy and stable Nordic countries, were are in the top when it comes to cases per capita. Maybe our relative richness and ability to afford a lot of travelling this time will bring us down?

In the US, Trump has gone from neglecting and disavowing the Corona crisis, via using it as another excuse for building his wall to now trying to use EU as a scapegoat for the failures of his own administration. It’s clear that access to testing for Corona virus infection has been very low in the USA compared to other countries. This can also be largely blamed on the Trump regime due to the underlying budget cuts at the Center for Disease Control from $12.7bn in 2010 to $8bn today (all in current dollars). "You can’t have surge capacity if you’ve already been cut to the bone”.

The confusing and ignorant attitude from "President Donald Trump, who has pooh-poohed the danger of the new disease, played down case counts, and insisted that the new disease will soon taper off” has contributed to the fact the USA is still in the dark when it comes to understanding the magnitude of the disease. This is also why Trumps attempt to play statesman and calm the jittery market backfired:

Such is the reverse Midas touch of Donald Trump, that his attempt last night to face facts, steady nerves and reassure the public succeeded in spreading panic, sowing confusion and ratcheting up the anxiety.

The result? The worst day ever for global stock markets and the global economy.

So where do we go from here and what’s the link to climate change and democracy? That’s the subject of my next post! 

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly side of Climate Change - and the Silver Lining on the Horizon

We are still in the early weeks of 2018, so this is a good time to both look back at 2017 and forward to the new year. So let’s take a look at what stands out as the Good, the Bad and the Ugly side of Climate Change - and what the possible silver linings on the horizon may be. And if the latter is what you need to hear, read the good news, then jump to the end bypassing the bad and ugly news! You can be sure that those stories will show up in the news anyway, sooner rather than later.

The Good

We are definitely entering the era of renewables! The cost of wind and solar energy keeps falling and their impact on energy production keeps increasing. Photovoltaic (PV) solar energy is especially interesting as it can be used both for mega utility sized installations as well as for micro installations for mobile phone charging. The big PV projects keeps driving down the cost per MW, while the small PV setups lower the threshold for clean energy. This also mean that in the developing world, solar power is bypassing the need for heavy grid installations.

Wind energy is increasingly becoming a backbone of energy supply. In countries like Denmark and Germany, there are days when wind energy provides the majority of power. Although it’s a “red” state, Texas is a US leader in wind energy simply due to economical factors.  

A crucial part of the renewable energy transformation is the development of battery technology, which again can be used in both mega scale and for individual users. The mega systems can act as stabilisers of the grid when other power fails which is exactly what happened in Australia when a coal power plant failed. The new Tesla battery backup saved the day.

The increasing supply of clean energy from wind and solar plus better batteries also drives the move towards electric vehicles. We are all aware of the Tesla saga and other car manufactures are following suit. But equally interesting is the development and implementation of electrical buses. The Chinese city Shenzhen has converted its entire fleet to electric buses and now probably have more electric buses than all of USA. That’s an example to follow.

In the Swedish city of Gothenburg, the Electricity buses are running silently enough to allow the acclaimed artist Zara Larsson to record a song on the bus!

Another positive sign is the movement towards sustainability in the corporate arena. An increasing number (albeit still too few) of companies are understanding that sustainability is a bottom line question. The Agenda 2030 sustainable development goals (SDGs) are becoming regular subject in economical articles. Even the financial sector is starting to move with investment in cleantech and divestment from primarily coal. New York City just the last week announced its plan not only to divest from fossil fuels but also to sue oil companies for the climate change damages they have caused. Finance, not politics, may thus turn out to be the soft underbelly of the climate monster.


The Bad

Sadly there are a lot of indicators that continue to point distinctly in the wrong direction. Sea levels keep rising and the effects are becoming more pronounced by the day. Flooding is already a regular phenomenon in a city like Miami, which is increasingly looking like a city doomed to become an Atlantis of the 21st century. Recent research also indicates that there is a clear risk that elevated temperatures in air and sea water will cause a massive discharge of ice from Antarctica due to ice cliff collapse.This would cause sea level to rise with many meters, forcing retreat from most coastal cities around the globe.

Water is not only coming from below. We have seen many extreme precipitation events during the last year, exemplified by the hurricanes over Houston and Puerto Rico. At time the hourly precipitations were equal to what's normally seen in days or weeks. At the same time other parts of our planet are suffering from droughts. Increasing aridness may be a widespread concern even if manage to stop global warming at 1.5°C. Such droughts will have a massive effect on food availability.

The combination of fire and floods can cause also combine to cause destructive mud flows as we have just witnessed in California.The force of water, whether coming from the sea or from the sky will overwhelm most of what comes in its way. Man made structures will succumb to the forces of nature.

Of course all of this is driven by the CO2 that we dump in the atmosphere from both fossil fuels and changes in land use. Very disturbingly after what looked like a plateau, the emission of CO2 increases again, as the graph below shows. We need to reach net zero emissions in just over two decades; yet emissions are still climbing.

It is thus not surprising but non the less extremely worrying that 2017 was the second hottest year recorded, this despite that this was not an El Nino year. The scary prospect of the future if we continue on this path is that parts of our world already by mid century may be to hot to handle. The combination of high temperatures and high humidity will make it impossible for humans (and wildlife) to stay cool enough to survive. This will be an additional cause of climate migration and we already know how badly we have coped with the present trickle of refugees.

The Ugly

As bad as all the above indicators are, the real ugly side is the continued ignorance of the increasing climate disruption; as well as the resistance to the real action needed in order to both reduce our emissions and prepare for the effects of higher temperatures and rising seas. Many politicians stick their head in the sand or make lukewarm attempts to call for action, but seem to be more concerned about keeping their electorate complacent that leading real change. Trump is of course that poster child for this attitude and his negative effects on both international treaties and the US EPA will only aggravate the situation. From Trump nothing good was to be expected while many other seemingly more benign politicians have so far failed to rise to the challenge. Leaders, where are you? 

Another group that must be held accountable is the media and the journalists that fail to do their job with communication. At this time of the year many lists are produced that claim to predict the fortune of the coming year. And ever so often, list like the "Top ten risk list” omit climate change from their scoreboard. 

It is especially the “political" journalists and self proclaimed pundits that fail the see beyond their own nose. In their world, it is all about “he said she said” and playing the political game. Still they fail to see the obvious links between climate change and politics both on the national and international arena. Fossil fuels have a tendency to promote oppression, corrupting both governments and business. Most of the oil producing countries in the Middle East plus countries like Russia and Venezuela are examples of this. Also in the USA, it is clear that the injection of enormous amounts of money from the fossil fuel industry has corrupted the political process. It is unlikely that Trump would have been elected if he had not received the support from funder such as the Koch brothers and very likely the Russian state.

Russia also tries to us its energy resources to achieve leverage towards its neighbours and the EU, by both providing and threatening to shut down the flow of natural gas.  For the EU, the best thing for both the climate and for resistance to Russian sabre rattling would be to rapidly go fossil free, thus depriving Russia of the economical means to be aggressive towards it neighbours. (Following that we would of course have to provide Russia with clean energy technology to both support their citizens and avoid a total collapse of the society.)

A huge problem that follows from the climate communication problem in media is the shifting baseline issue or, as it is sometimes phrased, the boiling frog problem. If not clearly stated we tend to forget what was normal just a decade ago and accept a very risk future. By acting little and late, or choices are restrained.

This also causes a bias in what is discussed as possible effects of climate change. We have a tendency to extrapolate linearly, forgetting that there are tipping points in natural systems. But, as the great climate communicator Katherine Hayhoe (@KHayhoe) puts it: "Self-reinforcing cycles, known and unknown unknowns - these are what keeps a climate scientist up at night".

 

The Silver Lining

So is there any silver lining on the dark climate change cloud?

During recent years there has been a lot of debate regarding whether scaring people with ugly facts or showing the possibilities with a green future is the best climate communication strategy. Last summer New York Magazine published an article that described the worst possible scenarios if global warming continues unabated. 

This article caused a large debate and many, even climate scientists, claimed that it was far to depressing to make people heed the necessary call for action. There has been somewhat of a consensus that we instead need to show the benefits of a fossil free future in order to motivate people; that it’s not facts that will move people and make them understand the prediction we are in.

This line of reasoning may have held back many scientist from talking about how bad the situation may be if we do not change path. Now, a new study shows that “When presented with factual information, people can heed the facts, even when doing so forces them to separate from their political attachments"

Thus, it may be time to stop selling false optimism and seeing everything as possibilities. In dire times and when survival is the issue, people can join force and do amazing things - if they are given the correct information and know that they are not alone in taking action. Compassion and community may be much more important than elusive possibilities, plus collaboration and leadership with courage. Storytelling helps but it must be without sugarcoating. And this quote from an environmental group i California summarises well what we need to do: “If we wait for governments to act it will be too late, if we act alone it will be too little, but if we act as communities it may just enough, just in time.”  

It is also a moral issue to act in the best interest of coming generations, something Pope Francis’ has underlined in his encyclical: A new prayer to help us commune with Nature (this notwithstanding his shortcoming in other areas such as reproductive rights for women).
One very encouraging effect that the combination of the Trump regime and the climate contrarians has had is that many scientists choose to accept the challenge and  become politicians. One such example is Jess Phoenix (@jessphoenix2018), a volcano scientist who is now a congressional candidate in California. Her platform is very much about climate change and we need many more aspiring politicians with a science background. This is absolutely needed also in Sweden!

   

So there might actually still be reasons to be optimistic. I think that the #metoo revolution last year can and should inspire the climate action movement. One direct link is that a key to the transition needed is the education of girls. This is probably the most cost effective way to promote development and resource efficiency. Education of girls and women world has consistently been shown to be a boon both for themselves and for societies.  

Finally, it is easy to become a cynic when looking at the problems ahead. But I prefer to be a “dystopian optimist”, because as @AlexSteffen, author of the Nearly Now blog puts is; "Cynicism is obedience to power”.


Or, as Malala Yousafzai described it in a recent Time Magazine column:

“I think it’s pointless to be hopeless. If you are hopeless, you waste your present and your future.”

Trump has made the fight for a liveable climate personal

The past six months have been a tsunami of news from, with and about Donald Trump. The flow of "fake news", invectives and ignorant statements has been so exhaustive that it eventually becomes difficult to get upset about what comes across Trumps lips or is delivered via his tweets. But it is important that we do not let ourselves be normalized by a president who seems to have come to power in a very dubious way and whose admiration for other despots is only matched by his dirty financial business.

It is not possible to say that Trump's destructive policy and attempting to throw the United States back to a bygone era has had any positive impact. But I think that his way of declaring the withdrawal from the Paris agreement has led to something new. The way he did it, by not talking about the climate but instead in a bombastic, ignorant and indifferent way proclaiming "America first" is so trivial and shows so clearly that he's really a toddler and not one of the world's leaders.

Perhaps it was the arrogant way he pronounced the withdrawal, at the same time rejecting the agreement and wanting to renegotiate it to get a better “deal" that seem to have infuriated other world leaders and led them to almost unison  condemnation (Teresa May’s bleak statement is probably due to that she does not have that many friends left). From Macron, who rhetorically elegantly turned Trump's argument against him stating "Make Our Planet Great Again”; to the Vatican state declaring that "Thinking that we need and must rely on coal and oil is like claiming that the Earth is not round” the criticism been massive. India, the EU and China, all have expressed their continued support for the Paris agreement. In equally clearly terms, Trump has been condemned by the media.

It also seem as if Trump's arrogance has personally challenged mayors, governors and industry leaders in the United States. A large number of cities and states, with New York and California in the lead, have already declared that they will both fulfil and exceed the goals of the Paris agreement. Outside the coal industry, there are few companies that stand behind Trump, not even Exxon Mobile. It is one of the things that, in spite of Trumps manoeuvring, gives me hope that the conversion from the fossil society that has started can not be reversed, albeit slowed down.

Thanks to Trump, we now also need to make climate a very personal matter. It is obvious that we will not be able to change the path we are as quickly as needed solely by relying on international agreements or overall political statements. Therefore, it is a sign of the times when people begin to take personal responsibility for our climate and “walk the talk" by declaring that they will refrain from air travel. It is as clear an example as becoming a vegetarian for environmental reasons, but ceasing air travel seems to be very difficult and provocative in our part of the world. This is partly due to the fact that fast and comfortable trains (including sleeper train) are not yet widely available. It is usually more expensive and more difficult to catch the train. But someone has to take the lead in order for politicians to dare to change the course, and for this they should be honoured and not ridiculed.

Hopefully, Trump's attempt to fool the world and his crazy belief in building a future on coal can invigorate  both citizens and politicians to a rapid switch to a climate-neutral society. In order for this to happen, we need to think about both what we personally can influence and how we make it clear to hesitant politicians that we are prepared for change. The conversion to a carbon neutral society will not be easy nor free. This will be a challenge for politicians who like to promise reforms now, rather than talking about hard work and long-term issues beyond next term. Perhaps this task will be easier to take on, if it simultaneously becomes a battle against everything represented by a demagogue and fake player like Trump. 

Trump har gjort klimatet till en personlig fråga

Det senaste halvåret har varit en tsunami av nyheter från, med och om Donald Trump. Flödet av “fake news”, elaka påhopp och okunniga uttalanden har varit så utmattande att det till slut blivit svårt att bli upprörd över vad som kommer över Trumps läppar eller levereras via hans tweets. Men det är viktigt att vi inte låter oss normaliseras av en president som förefaller ha kommit till makten med skumma metoder och vars beundran för andra despoter bara matchas av hans smutsiga ekonomiska affärer. 

Det går inte att säga att Trumps destruktiva politik och försök att kasta USA tillbaka till en svunnen tid har haft något gott med sig. Men hans sätt att deklarera sitt utträde ur Parisavtalet tror jag har lett till något nytt. Sättet att göra det, att inte prata om klimatet utan att på samma gång bombastiskt, okunnigt och inställsamt bara prata om "America first" är så trivialt och visar så tydligt på att han verkligen är ett barn i trotsåldern och inte en bland världen ledare. 

Kanske var det just det arroganta sättet som han uttalade utträdet, där han på samma gång förkastade avtalet och ville förhandla om det på sina villkor som verkar att ha fått världens övriga ledare att i det närmaste unisont fördöma honom (Att Teresa May inte är lika tydlig i sin kritik beror nog mest på att hon inte har så många vänner kvar i övrigt). Från Macron, som retoriskt elegant vände Trumps argument mot honom med sitt “Make our Planet great again” till Vatikanstatens uttalande om att “Thinking that we need and must rely on coal and oil is like claiming that the Earth is not round” har kritiken varit massiv. Indien, EU och Kina, alla har uttalat sitt fortsatta stöd för Parisavtalet. Lika tydligt har media fördömt honom.

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De verkar också som om Trumps arrogans har personligen utmanat borgmästare, guvernörer och industriledare i USA.  Ett stort antal städer och delstater, med New York och Kalifornien i spetsen har redan deklarerat att de kommer att både hålla och överskrida målen i Parisavtalet. Utanför kolindustrin finns det få företag som ställer sig bakom Trump, inte ens Exxon Mobile. Det är en av de saker som trots allt ger hopp om att den omställning bort från fossilsamhället som har startat inte kan vändas, om än bromsas. 

Tack vare Trump behöver vi nu också göra klimatet till en högst personlig fråga. Det är uppenbart att vi inte kommer att kunna vända utvecklingen så snabbt som behövs enbart genom att lita till internationella avtal eller övergripande politiska överenskommelser. Därför är det ett tecken i tiden när människor börjar ta personligt ansvar för vårt klimat och göra handling av ord genom att deklarera att de kommer att avstå från flygresor. Det är lika mycket av ett exempel som att bli vegetarian av miljöskäl, men just flygresor verkar vara något av de svåraste och mest provocerande att avstå från i vår del av världen. Delvis beror det på att snabba och bekväma tåg (inklusive nattåg) ännu inte är allmänt tillgängligt, just nu är det oftast både dyrare och besvärligare att ta tåget. Men några måste gå före för att politikerna skall våga lägga om kursen och det skall de hyllas för och inte ifrågasättas. 

Förhoppningvis kan Trumps försök att idiotförklara omvärlden och hans galna tro att det går att bygga en framtid på kol skapa ett engagemang hos både medborgare och politiker som gör att vi tillräckligt snabbt ställer om till ett klimatneutralt samhälle. För att det skall ske behöver vi också var och en fundera över både vad vi själva kan påverka och hur vi gör det tydligt för tvehågsna politiker att vi är beredda till förändring. Omställningen kommer inte att bli vare sig lätt eller gratis och bara det blir en utmaning för politiker som gärna vill lova mer nu, snarare än att prata om hårt arbete och långsiktighet. Kanske kan det kan vara lättare att ta sig an den uppgiften om det samtidigt blir en kamp mot allt som representeras av en demagog och falskspelare som Trump. 

Recharging by the sea as clouds gather in the west

I’m back by the sea. This is where I always go when I need to recharge and be at peace with myself. Watching the ripples on the water surface in the diminishing light from the setting sun, while listening to the blackbirds singing is a way of being present; effortless mindfulness. Tonight I treated myself with some fresh shrimps and a glass of wine as an extra luxury.

As I sat by the beach, I chose to ignore the buzzing from my phone and the “breaking news” signals. But dark clouds started to drift in from the west, as a telltale sign of bad news. This foreboding was correct, because when I picked up my phone as I walked back up to the house the message was clear: “Trump withdraws from the Paris climate accord”. 

The news did not really come as a surprise, more like a verification of the combined arrogance, egoism, ignorance and shortsightedness of the so called president Trump. This action fits well with his lack of empathy with anyone but himself:

"He is the spoiled child of an indulgent father who imagines that what he achieved via nepotism is rather attributable to his own superior qualities.”

He is also a man to always tries to take credit for others achievements and uses everyone else for his purposes. Tonight he claimed to love coalminers and bragged about being elected by the people in Pittsburgh not Paris. But the folks in Pittsburgh were neither pleased nor impressed. In the words of mayor Bill Peduto:

As the Mayor of Pittsburgh, I can assure you that we will follow the guidelines of the Paris Agreement for our people, our economy & future

Climate change is already here and the negative effects are already clearly visible. Trump may be too old, too fat and too unhealthy to himself be able to experience the worst consequences of climate change. But I do wish him to live long enough to see his getaway spot in Mar-Del-Lago be flooded from the rising sea waters. 

For all of us that will be around a bit longer and especially for the children of today and tomorrow, the decision by Trump will be remembered as one man egoism winning over the planet. 

All this said we must remember that the Paris accord in itself would not have saved us, even with the participation of USA. A much more rapid shift away from fossil fuels is needed. But Trumps decision may slow the pace of the necessary transition and dilute our efforts when focus and action is what is needed. Still, there is a chance that we can shift direction in time to a clean energy society and thus a liveable planet, since the economic incitament for going green is becoming so strong. In that case, USA may be the biggest looser in this development:

A global shift to renewable energy is on. There’s no denying it or turning it around. It’s good for business. This is not fake news. It’s real life. And it’s happening with or without you.

Regrettably, ignorance and shortsightedness are not confined to Trump. Just this week in Sweden there was a decision to expand an airport adjacent to a ski resort; a location that has already had problems with lack of snow and mild winter temperatures. Also in Sweden, record sales of (mostly combustion engine) cars was reported. And on my Facebook feed I could see endless pictures posted by a group of acquaintances from their week of shopping spree in New York.

There is an enormous need of leadership if we are going to solve the climate challenge, especially now after the American abdication. Some reason for hope is that there are indications that the EU and China will step up to the plate. This could actually become a huge chance for Europe to find a common positive cause to fight for. Already, the French president Macron has invited scientists and entrepreneurs to move here if there is a lack of opportunities in the USA. 

But to have bold leaders, we as citizens also need to do our part. If we are not willing to abstain from anything there is not a chance that we can transition to a low emission future in time to stabilise the climate. What we must learn as grown ups, in contrast to the toddler attitude of Trump, is that you have to make an effort and sometimes a sacrifice to succeed. As I have written before, the valiant quest is not a simple journey.