There is no hope - so we have to create it

I am writing this immediately after the American election night. A Trump presidency has turned from a dystopian illusion to a disastrous reality. What that will mean for the US and for the rest of the world is unclear, but the signs are not good, neither in the short term nor in the long run. 

For the fight to preserve a liveable climate, four years with Trump will have effects that will linger on for decades if not centuries. We know that for the third year in a row 2016 will be the warmest year ever globally. There is no time to loose for us in the transition to a carbon free world. Plains economics will make even Trump unable to turn coal into gold, due to the fact the markets have understood that wind and solar are better economic alternative. But with Trump as president, USA will not be a driving force in the energy transition and will stall and disrupt necessary changes both domestically and internationally. By the time Florida starts to flood, it might be to late to reverse the effects of the damage done. 

In Europe, Trumps fondness of Putin and threat to withdraw from NATO will likely destabilise security and increase risks of conflicts. For Sweden, we need to understand that we will need to rely on our strength even more and increase spending on both military and civil defence. Hopefully security can be built in collaboration with our Nordic neighbours, but in a “Big Boys” chest thumping between Trump and Putin, small countries like the in the Baltic may well be seen as expandable pawns.  

A big question is what will happen to the economy. Trumps protectionist agenda has already sent the stock market falling and there are dire predictions about what will happen now. While Trump has no solutions based on his “business" experience we must understand is that the economy and the effects of globalisation is something that has fuelled the anger that has propelled Trump to his success. Main stream politicians in USA and Europe have failed to grasp the insecurity and fear that have come with the changes brought by modernisation, digitalisation and automation. An inside candidate what not what these people sought and they stopped listening to experts.

Then there is racism, a factor that has not gone away in the US, something Sarah Kendzior has written about as she has tried to warn her colleagues in the press about what they have been dealing with. Racism is propping up is ugly head also here in Sweden and Europe; many with that agenda will feel vindicated by Trumps victory.

Hope is not a given. At this dark time, we need to create hope, by organising and resisting, by finding strength from new coalitions rather than trying more of the same. Sarah Kendzior wrote about Elijah Parish Lovejoy, a journalist who was murdered by a racist mob in 1837. Anticipating his own death Lovejoy proclaimed, "there is no excuse for deserting your post”. 

Commemorating a long dead king and looking to the near and far future

Today was November 6th or “Gustaf Adolfs Day” as it is locally called in remembrance of King Gustaf Adolf the 2nd. There are no parades on this day, the festivities are reduced to eating a special cake and few people spend any length of time thinking about a king who died doing battle in Germany during the 17th century. But he did inaugurate the city of Gothenburg in 1621 so thanks to him we have a 400 years jubilee to look forward to in 2021.

Since 2001, November 6th is also declared by the United Nations as the “International Day for Preventing the Exploitation of the Environment in War and Armed Conflict”. It’s a sad situation that we need such a day, but looking at ongoing conflicts in e.g. Iraq and Syria, it is clear that the environment is also a collateral casualty in wars. Moreover, wars are often fought over resources, be it water, oil, food or access to coasts and ports such as the case in the Russian invasion of Crimea. Not that we really need wars to disrupt the environment, this compilation shows that we are disrupting the global ecosystems at a blistering speed even in “peaceful” times. Furthermore, the impact goes both ways, changing climate causes resource conflicts and conflicts depletes the resources we badly need to innovate and transform societies in order to reach a future free of carbon emissions. So while I understand and accept that it’s necessary to increase defence spending due to Russias aggressive manoeuvring, it is sad that we can not spend the brains and money on building the low energy future we need.

In two days, it will be November 8th and finally the US presidential election season will be over (for this time).  We will learn which of the candidates that prevailed in the dirtiest election ever. It shouldn’t really be possible that a bullying, lying, narcissist with lack of self control like Donald Trump could be elected president of the United States. Just thinking about a scenario where he has control over the nuclear weapon codes gives me nightmares. However his opponent Hillary Clinton fits just too well into the caricature of the “insider” that populist like Trump but also our European right wing parties likes to portray. It is clear, from the rise of Trump and also from Brexit, that leaders in many of our liberal democracies have failed to grasp the effects of globalisation and likewise failed to provide a vision of future that is fair, equitable and truly sustainable. 

Therefore, if Donald Trump looses there is no reason to be jubilant for Hillary Clinton even though she has made some pledges to be more green. Instead there needs to be mobilisation that brings together both environmental champions and social activists in order to create a just and inclusive future. But this movement also needs to change, in order to embrace the growing part of business that also want to strive for just future. We need both the grassroots, the science geeks and the innovators and we need them now. 

Should Donald Trump win, I fear that there will be more wars in Europe in the coming decade