Sunset reflections: Stand by the girls!

A few days ago, on the warmest day yet this spring, outdoor café’s and bars in Gothenburg were filled with people enjoying the weather. It was a sunny day, almost 20°C in early April so I choose to take a long walk in the nature reserve adjacent to the Botanical garden. Sitting on a hill, only a few km from the city centre, the traffic noise of the city was reduced to a slow humming in the background, almost drowned out by the sound of blackbirds singing in the treetops. 

In a moment like this, looking at the sun setting over the water in the distance, everything looked almost normal. The distant flash from the Vinga lighthouse becoming visible as dusk was setting; the spring sky still too light for any stars to show.

Yet we know… 

• 3 million years are slowly catching up with us. 
• 3 million years of change that we have compressed into 2 centuries since the start of the industrial revolution.
• 3 million years of change that were hidden in the deep sea and the slowly melting glaciers.
• 3 million years of change that will transform the world as we know it.

This brutal message can be found in several recent studies. 3 million years, that’s how far back we need to go to find a time when carbon dioxide levels were as high as they are today. If we could send a scout back in time, he or she would find a world very different from ours, with sea levels 15-20 meters higher than today and trees growing on what are now the ice covered plateaus of Antarctica. Globally, temperatures were 3-4°C higher than today, but in Antarctica, temperatures were 20°C higher, changing it from glacier to tundra. And since that time, the global temperatures have not exceeded 1.5°C over the preindustrial baseline, a level now considered a warning threshold.  

Surely on the return to our time, our time traveller would waste no time to speak before governments and the world, telling us that our coastal cities are about to become the modern versions of Atlantis and a new era of massive migration is upon us. The message would be clear, change path and prepare for a different future or succumb to the climate disruption that we have started.  

But alas, this tale of the imagined time traveller has already been told to us again and again by the scientists that have spent their lives investigating our climate system. For each passing year, their warnings have been more and more stern, their call upon us to act more urgent. So even a truth speaking time traveller might not be enough break through our obsession with “growth and progress”. 

Still, maybe this winter we have seen the arrival of a storyteller persistent enough to break through media wall. But rather than storyteller I would call Greta Thunberg a catalyst that for a movement that might become strong enough to shake us enough to make us understand that change is coming, wether we like it or not. The tool used by Greta and her fellow activists (and there are many around the world) has been to strike from school, using the hard to refute argument “why study for a future that will be denied us?”. What is really amazing and a potential game changer is that Greta has inspired so many other young girls between 13 and 18 years. This is a group that has been looked down upon, almost ridiculed as Generation Z. Instead they have shown to be smart, knowledgable and well organised, making global connections and inspiring each other. 

These kids have like the child in HC Andersens tale about the naked emperor unmasked the various attitudes so many of our political “leaders”; slow or faked engagement, hidden indifference or even climate science denial. Many of the remaining climate deniers or climate delayers are also fiercely opposed to other aspects of a just society, like women’s and LBTQ rights as well as immigration. That the same persons refuse the action on climate change that will lead to the very migration waves they are so scared of is parodic, had it not been so tragic. 

It is unlikely that the young and vocal girls now leading the climate movement will accept to step back and let “older and wiser men” take command again. But to the people in power they are a threat, one reason being that they are not yet entangled in the normality of mortgages and consumption that has subdued so many of us. So we, who call ourselves grownups, need to shake us loose and stand behind and support these young activists. Each and everyone of us should do all that we can in our own lives to live a low carbon life, there is no conflict between personal change and activism. But as I have written before, the valiant quest is not a simple journey. So we need to understand, accept and embrace this task, because it is what we need to do save our humanity.  

We are killing the signature species of Antarctica

Penguins are the signature species of Antarctica and Adélie penguins must be considered “the” penguin. Pictures of these black and white penguins, hobbling around on the ice or standing on the ice edge before plunging into the water is a common illustration of life in Antarctica. But for most people, this is still an image from very far away, even if some of us have enjoyed meeting penguins at a zoo.

Many year ago, during a research cruise to Antarctica, I had the privilege to see Adélie penguins in their real environment. I watched rows of penguins tracking over the pack ice on their rout to the breeding colonies. I have even been to a colony like that, when we set foot on South Georgia. And I have been standing on an iceberg looking across crisp blue water meeting the gaze of a group of penguins huddling together on another iceberg.

I am both very much aware of and knowledgable about the ongoing climate crisis. But having this experience of meeting penguins in their own environment makes it gut wrenching to read the news about the recent catastrophe that has affected the breeding of Adélie penguins. In a colony with about 40,000 penguins, all but two (2!) chicks have died of starvation this year. I try to reconcile this message with my mental picture of tiptoeing around thousands of nestling noisy penguins; I try to imagine silence and emptiness. It’s hard and it’s sad.

Of course it is a complicated picture that has caused this disaster. Life in nature is a complicated web, you start pulling in many strings and at one point there will be a fracture, even if it is hard to see just what straw that broke the camels back. But we know many of the factors that has set the scene for this disaster:

• Increasing fisheries of krill, the Antarctic shrimp depletes the food resource
• Unusual changes of pack ice means a harder voyage for the parents when returning from search for food
• Elevated temperature due to man made climate change causes freezing rain to fall, something the fluffy chicks can not cope with

We might think that the fate of penguins have no great effect on us in our urbanised and digitised societies. But the penguins are yet another canary in the coal mine. We do not know and are even ignorant and avoiding the knowledge about which factor that might break the back of our life as we know it. But beyond any rational thinking, any time we risk loosing a species or an ecosystem, we destroy some part of the beauty of our common planet. It is time we start asking ourselves if our lifestyle with its focus on quick rewards and material consumption is worth this sacrifice.

Larsen C - en personlig betraktelse av en dystopisk optimist

Efter månader av observationer via satellit vet vi nu att ett gigantiskt isberg har bildats i Antarktis. Det är större än Gotland, med en vikt av flera biljoner ton och har brutits loss från “Larsen C”; en shelf-is längs Antarktiska halvön. Shelfisar är de massiva flytande istäcken som omringar Antarktis glaciärer och skyddar dem mot direkt kontakt med havet. De agerar stötdämpare mot vågor och varmare havsvatten, så utan shelfisar kan glaciärerna börja skena ut i havet. 

Jag har varit i Antarktis och därför betyder dåliga klimatnyheter från polarområdena något speciellt för mig. För många år sedan deltog jag i en europeisk forskningsexpedition till Wedellhavet för att där studera marina mikroorganismer i isen. På vägen dit korsade vi “the roaring forties” för att sedan färdas runt bland isen under nära två månader. Jag har sett mängder av isberg, stått ovanpå isberg och på isflak med många tusen meter vatten under mina fötter. Jag har sett Adeliepingviner vandra i led över isen och beundrat kejsarpingviner på nära håll. Bilden jag bär med mig av Antarktis är en kritvit ispetrell mot den klarblå himlen.

Jag har inte bara varit i Antarktis, jag har också bott i Umeå som ligger längre norrut (latitud 64N) än vad vi nådde söderut ombord på Polarstern. I det subarktiska klimatet i norra Sverige var det i början av 80-talet inte ovanligt med veckor i sträck med kallare än -20°C varje dag. Jag har också arbetat med marin forskning i Bottniska viken, när det fortfarande regelmässigt var 1 m solid is i april. Så är det inte längre, även i Arktis stiger temperaturen rasande snabbt. 

Tillbaka till Larsen C. Betyder just denna händelse en omedelbar katastrof? Nej, eftersom shelfisen flyter på vattnet betyder det inte att havet stiger, men det är en varningssignal. Vi har redan höjt temperaturen med drygt 1°C genom våra utsläpp. Thwaites är en glaciärer i västra Antarktis som beräknas bli instabil om shelfisen försvinner. Hur fort en kollaps av Thwaites skulle kunna ske vet vi inte, bara att följderna vore dramatiska. Smälter Västantarktis stiger havet 6-8 m, till den nivå havet hade under Pliocen-epoken för 3 mijoner år sedan. Oroväckande nog var CO2-halten i atmosfären då densamma som vi med våra utsläpp har nått idag.

Om vi inte ändrar kurs går vi en het och blöt framtid till mötes. Läget är illa nog utan att ta till de minsta överdrifter och vI behöver samla kraft för att orka handla. Därför väljer jag att trots min dystopi att försöka hitta skäl till optimism, för samtidigt med larmrapporterna händer också mycket positivt. Omställningen från kol och olja till förnyelsebar energi från sol och vind pågår för fullt. Vad än Trump säger är kolets tid snart förbi. Kombinationen av allt billigare elektricitet och elektrifiering av våra bilar är ett exempel på disruptiv utveckling. Att kinesiskt-ägda Volvo satsar på elbilsutveckling ger hopp om att även Göteborg skall kunna bryta upp från beroendet av fossilindustrin.

Det finns också en allt större medvetenhet om behovet av hållbar utveckling bland både företag, folkrörelser och “folk i allmänhet”. Hundratals seminarier om hållbarhet hörs under årets politikervecka i Almedalen. Människor är allt mer medvetna om klimatförändringen och många vill göra något. Som Svante Axelsson utrycker det, fossilfritt ligger i tiden!

Men som dystopisk optimist måste jag också peka på riskerna. Det går inte att vara “dumoptimist” och tro att enbart goda marknadskrafter och “grön tillväxt” skall lösa problemet. Vi är på G, men det går alldeles för sakta. Det saknas dessutom insikt om att den nödvändiga omställningen blir just det, en omställning av vårt sätt att leva: 

For more than two decades, many people tried  to sell climate action 

 by arguing that it wouldn’t really demand much change, at all

Så glöm bort att vi kan fortsätta med Thailandsresor och obegränsade shoppingresor till London och Paris. Att flyg är en stor klimatbov vet vi redan och det visas tydligt i en ny studie från Lunds Universitet (Att vi i den rika delen av världen inte bör skaffa onödigt många barn var också en slutsats). Flygresor är både en reell riskfaktor för klimatet och en symbol för om vi är beredda att ändra beteende. Utan att försaka något av vår bekvämlighet och vår “rätt” att flyga till solen varje år kommer vi inte att klara klimatet.

Självklart räcker det inte med att vi agerar enskilt. Dessutom skiljer det sig mycket mellan individer när det gäller vilka utsläpp man är med och skapar. Till stor del handlar det om pengar, har man mer ekonomiska resurser tär man mycket mer på våra resurser och vårt klimat. Det gäller i en stad som Göteborg och det gäller globalt, där den rikaste tiondelen står för hälften av utsläppen. Därför måste en långsiktigt hållbar klimatpolitik även hantera ojämlikhet inom och mellan länder. 

Men det spelar roll vad vi gör och effekten ökar snabbt om vi är många som gör det. Vi kan sätta exempel som individer, påverka inom våra företag och organisationer och ingjuta mod i vankelmodiga politiker så att de vågar visa ledarskap. Vi har fortfarande möjligheterna - om vi har viljan och utmanar vi både vår egen bekvämlighet och trögheten i den politiska sfären. Och att vi kan lämna tron på den eviga tillväxten som enda rättesnöre för våra samhällen. Mer på det temat följer!

Recharging by the sea as clouds gather in the west

I’m back by the sea. This is where I always go when I need to recharge and be at peace with myself. Watching the ripples on the water surface in the diminishing light from the setting sun, while listening to the blackbirds singing is a way of being present; effortless mindfulness. Tonight I treated myself with some fresh shrimps and a glass of wine as an extra luxury.

As I sat by the beach, I chose to ignore the buzzing from my phone and the “breaking news” signals. But dark clouds started to drift in from the west, as a telltale sign of bad news. This foreboding was correct, because when I picked up my phone as I walked back up to the house the message was clear: “Trump withdraws from the Paris climate accord”. 

The news did not really come as a surprise, more like a verification of the combined arrogance, egoism, ignorance and shortsightedness of the so called president Trump. This action fits well with his lack of empathy with anyone but himself:

"He is the spoiled child of an indulgent father who imagines that what he achieved via nepotism is rather attributable to his own superior qualities.”

He is also a man to always tries to take credit for others achievements and uses everyone else for his purposes. Tonight he claimed to love coalminers and bragged about being elected by the people in Pittsburgh not Paris. But the folks in Pittsburgh were neither pleased nor impressed. In the words of mayor Bill Peduto:

As the Mayor of Pittsburgh, I can assure you that we will follow the guidelines of the Paris Agreement for our people, our economy & future

Climate change is already here and the negative effects are already clearly visible. Trump may be too old, too fat and too unhealthy to himself be able to experience the worst consequences of climate change. But I do wish him to live long enough to see his getaway spot in Mar-Del-Lago be flooded from the rising sea waters. 

For all of us that will be around a bit longer and especially for the children of today and tomorrow, the decision by Trump will be remembered as one man egoism winning over the planet. 

All this said we must remember that the Paris accord in itself would not have saved us, even with the participation of USA. A much more rapid shift away from fossil fuels is needed. But Trumps decision may slow the pace of the necessary transition and dilute our efforts when focus and action is what is needed. Still, there is a chance that we can shift direction in time to a clean energy society and thus a liveable planet, since the economic incitament for going green is becoming so strong. In that case, USA may be the biggest looser in this development:

A global shift to renewable energy is on. There’s no denying it or turning it around. It’s good for business. This is not fake news. It’s real life. And it’s happening with or without you.

Regrettably, ignorance and shortsightedness are not confined to Trump. Just this week in Sweden there was a decision to expand an airport adjacent to a ski resort; a location that has already had problems with lack of snow and mild winter temperatures. Also in Sweden, record sales of (mostly combustion engine) cars was reported. And on my Facebook feed I could see endless pictures posted by a group of acquaintances from their week of shopping spree in New York.

There is an enormous need of leadership if we are going to solve the climate challenge, especially now after the American abdication. Some reason for hope is that there are indications that the EU and China will step up to the plate. This could actually become a huge chance for Europe to find a common positive cause to fight for. Already, the French president Macron has invited scientists and entrepreneurs to move here if there is a lack of opportunities in the USA. 

But to have bold leaders, we as citizens also need to do our part. If we are not willing to abstain from anything there is not a chance that we can transition to a low emission future in time to stabilise the climate. What we must learn as grown ups, in contrast to the toddler attitude of Trump, is that you have to make an effort and sometimes a sacrifice to succeed. As I have written before, the valiant quest is not a simple journey. 

"America first" will lead us all into the abyss

Since the installation of Donald tRUmp as executive director in the White House, we have been overwhelmed by a barrage news (often in the form of tweets) conveying attacks om truth, society and science. While many executive orders have been issued, little leadership has been shown with the political fiasco regarding the new health care bill as tRumps low point so far. Every day, there is also new information uncovered that shows the deep personal and economical ties between the tRump campaign and Russia. This is not a story that will end well. 

What we must not forget during all this drama is that obscured by politics, climate disruption continues at full speed and this week, tRump signalled his intent to drag us all with him into the climate abyss. 

Surrounded by a group of all white men tRump signed his executive order to roll back environmental legislation and climate regulation, instead promoting coal as his way of making “America great”. But regardless of the effects of tRumps policies on the global climate (more on that below), another victim will be the American clean energy industry. Or as Tom Friedman wrote in NY Times; tRump must be a Chinese agent with a secret plan to crash US industry. Because if not:

The only other explanation is that he’s ignorant and unread — that he’s never studied the issues or connected the dots between them — so Big Coal and Big Oil easily manipulated him into being their chump, who just tweeted out their talking points to win votes here and there — without any thought to grand strategy. Surely that couldn’t be true?

Coming back to the real physical world, thermodynamics couldn’t care less about politics. It’s really very easy to understand; more greenhouse gases in atmosphere will mean more heat trapped; more heat trapped means melting ice and disruptive weather effects. In both the Arctic and the Antarctic, sea ice is at a record low, which is bad news for the glaciers. 

Melting ice caps on both the top and bottom of the globe will naturally lead to increasing sea levels. Long term this will mean many meters increase in sea level, but already mid century many cities along the US coast may be faced with up to one metre higher ocean levels. The golf club in Florida where tRump pretends to be working every weekend will have easy access to the waterfront in a not to far future. 

The tRump-Putin link comes back to play also in the climate area, as they both have reasons to avoid any serious attempts to curb the use of fossil fuels. For Putin, the income from oil and gas is essential in order to be able to invest in weapons and keeping the Russian population reasonably content. Trump is beholden to his billionaire friends and their links to the oil and gas industry. Together tRump and Putin has every reason in their world to resist the renewable energy transition. 

This inaction will come with a hefty price tag.  All signs are that not only will climate change lead to immense suffering, it will also be an economical disaster. 

“Historically, people have considered a 20 percent decline in global Gross Domestic Product to be a black swan: a low-probability catastrophe,” Hsiang warned. “We’re finding it’s more like the middle-of-the-road forecast.”

Recently I was in Stockholm at a conference on sustainable health care. While there, I hade the opportunity to both listen and talk to Kevin Anderson (@kevinclimate). He is a climate scientist that divides his time between Manchester UK and Uppsala Sweden. When travelling between these cities, he chooses the train since he sees the necessity to "walk the talk". We in the rich part of the world have both the resources and the knowledge to change, thus it is our moral obligation to do so. You can listen to Kevin in this video. 

What Kevin as well as other scientists have shown is that the time for nice and slow transition was in the past. Hade we started out transferring to a low carbon economy 20 years ago, when we already had the knowledge, it would have been a smooth journey. But, as this graph shows, now we need drastic cuts starting today. 

We are no longing talking about climate change in a far away future, it is here and now and it's about humans, not polar bears: 

"When scientists worry about cataclysmic weather chaos, they’re worrying not about distant unknowable generations. They’re worrying about the kids all around us: the ones on their way to school, playing in the park, asking for a bedtime story”

So where do I start myself? On the personal level by planning next vacation trip by train, instead of via air. And on larger level, it's political action that is needed by resisting the liers and nay-sayers. We can still change the path we are on but not without fighting for a better future. 

Goda grannar och trogna vänner

I svåra tider är det som viktigast att ha goda grannar och pålitliga vänner. Efter Trump-Bannon regimens maktövertagande i USA (jag vill knappast längre kalla det valseger) så befinner vi oss i en mycket svårförutsebar situation, som dessutom riskerar att snabbt försämras. Det är inte lätt att urskilja vad som är värst bland den kanonad av dåliga beslut som kommit från de nya makthavarna i Washington. Dessutom kanske de upphetsade attackerna på invandrare, flyktingar, journalister och parkvakter mfl döljer ännu värre beslut och intentioner. Men de faror som vi bör fokusera på är stora nog;  kaos, krig och klimatkatastrof.

Politiskt kaos råder delvis i USA, där man inte vet från dag till annan vilka nya bulletiner som utfärdas från presidentpalatset. Det kan också snabbt bli kaos i ekonomin vilket direkt påverkar Sverige och EU, en organisation som Trump sagt sig vara likgiltig inför. I ett för dagen svagare och mer splittrat EU är vår förmåga till att så emot en försämrad världsekonomi inte heller bra.

Krig pågår redan i Ukraina och det lär knappast bli bättre om Trump fortsätter att agera undfallande gentemot Putin, en av de få världsledare som han inte kommit på kant med. Idag ryktas det att Trump vill ta bort sanktionerna mot Ryssland och risken är att detta kommer att tolkas som fritt fram av Putin. Men det är inte bara i Ukraina som Ryssland agerar destabiliserande. Även på Balkan rör Ryssland om i grytan på ett sätt som ökar konfliktrisken. NATO riskerar också att bli en högst osäker organisation att sätta sin tillit till, med Trump’s uttalade förakt för gemensam säkerhet.

Klimatkatastrofen pågår och Trump gör vad han kan för att leda USA baklänges tillbaka in i koldimman. Tyvärr stannar inte den politiken inom landets gränser, vi kommer alla att drabbas om chansen att klara tvågradersgränsen skjuts i sank. Smältande havsisar i både Arktis och Antarktis är bara ett av många tecken. Om stigande havsvatten gör att Florida går från “swing state” till “sunk state” är det ingen tröst, klimatet kommer att driva miljoner på flykt.

Det finns verkligen starka skäl till att vara orolig för framtiden. Men vi behöver inte den räddhågsna och och ganska inskränkta oro som många politiker uttrycker just nu, tex vid partiledardebatten i den svenska riksdagen. Det var en uppvisning i att "känna" mest oro, men istället för att mana till handlingskraft blev det som DN skriver: "en berättelse om kris i samhället och osäkerhet i folkdjupen. Den [oron] tenderar att förstärka sig själv när orosorden inte motsvaras av någon lugnande politisk dådkraft."

I en tid med stora utmaningar är det minst av allt ängsliga och rädda politiker vi behöver. Den fundamentala osäkerhet som regimen Trump-Bannon har infört i världen gör att mycket av det som vi trodde var säkert har välts över ända. Just därför behöver vi lugna, kloka och ändå både visionära och handlingskraftiga politiker för att kunna hantera läget.

I krissituationer klarar sig den som förberett sig väl. Men lika viktigt som att ha preppat med mat och vatten, är det att ha släkt och vänner, grannar och och bekanta som ställer upp när katastrofen kommer. Det är de som finns närmast till hands och skyndar till för att hjälpa. Detta har visat sig många gånger vid tex jordbävningar och översvämningar. Tappar vi tilltron till att få hjälp och stöd från våra närmaste är vi verkligen illa ute.

Så var skall vi som land söka våra vänner? Självklart bland de som vi har både historik, tradition och kulturell gemenskap att arbeta tillsammans med, dvs våra nordiska grannar. Vi pratar ofta om skillnader men i grunden har vi mycket gemensamt. De nordiska länderna, Finland, Island, Norge, Danmark och Sverige (FINDS) är tillsammans en ekonomisk stormakt, med lika stort BNP som Ryssland trots att vi bara är en femtedel så många. Jämfört med Ryssland har vi också långt fler världsledande företag, internationellt konkurrenskraftig forskning, bättre sjukvård och mer jämställda samhällen. I de nordiska länderna finns gott om råvaror, både skog och malm, vattenkraft och annan hållbar energi. I internationella rankinglistor kring vällevnad, innovation, mm finns ofta minst tre nordiska länder med bland topp 5. Sedan decennier har vi också en gemensam arbetsmarknad och fri rörlighet mellan våra länder.

Men det räcker inte att se till vår gemensamma historia, i dagsläget måste ett djupare nordiskt samarbete också innebära en ökad försvarssamverkan. Ett väl fungerande försvar är nödvändigt, eftersom Kreml tror på handlingar och inte ord. Vi har börjat det samarbetet men det kommer att behövas mer.

Även om försvar är viktigt så skall Norden inte rustas till en beväpnad livbåt på ett stormigt hav, utan vi skall använda våra länder som en internationell förebild. Det är glädjande att World Economic Forum hyllar Sverige, det skall vi använda för att visa fördelen med öppna, innovativa och inkluderande samhällen. Därför bör Norden även bjuda in länderna runt Östersjön, framför allt de baltiska staterna och Tyskland i sin gemenskap. Merkels besök härom dagen visar på att den gemenskapen finns och kan stärkas.

Så vad bör då göras i denna hårda tid? Några förslag till den svenska regeringen:

• Ge omedelbart ett betydande ekonomiskt tillskott till det militära OCH civila försvaret, så att övningar av totalförsvaret kan hållas, förlorad personal återanställas och cyberförsvaret förstärkas. Detta visar att Sverige menar allvar med att förstärka vår egen och därmed den regionala säkerheten. Vi visar att det går att lita på oss.
• Bjud in till de nordiska stats, utrikes och försvarsministrarna till ett toppmöte om vad vi kan göra på kort och lång sikt för att stärka nordisk samverkan på alla plan. Gör det tydligt och ödmjukt, ledarskap måste förtjänas.
• Det är ett utmärkt att regeringen med stöd av alla partier (utom SD förstås) lagt fram ett förslag till klimatlag. En viktigt anledning till att ännu snabbare driva på omställning till fossilfritt Sverige är att göra oss fria från beroendet av rysk gas och olja. Dessutom kommer teknik för ett hållbart samhälle att vara vårt långsiktigt bidrag till en stabilare värld.

På medeltiden dominerades handel och utveckling kring Östersjön av Hansan. Med Norden, Baltikum och Tyskland i ledningen skulle en ny Hansa kunna etableras som med styrka men framför allt öppenhet kunde visa både Ryssland och USA ett bättre alternativ för framtiden. Vare sig Putin eller Trump lever för evigt.

On the darkest day, reading dystopian fiction as an act of defiance

To dark for growing, I put the Christmas lights in the window greenhouse

Winter is coming, or should already have been here in Sweden. Today is winter solstice, the shortest day of the year and on a normal winter most of the country would be well below freezing temperature and covered with snow. But this year is not normal in any respect, weather and climate being just one of them. From a rather hopeful start, following the climate agreement at COP21 in Paris, things started to go downhill. It was soon clear that 2016 would displace 2015 as the globally warmest year ever. And also in many other aspects, things have been going down a slippery slope. A few examples:

Brexit was the first real electoral shock where it was clear that “common sense” and reasoning from experts did not stand a chance against focused and aggressive populism backed by a hysterical campaign in both social and traditional media. It even cost the life of one of Britains most promising young politicians, Jo Cox, who was attacked by a man inspired by the vile rightwing rhetoric (i.e. he was a terrorist). Brexit was also a very bad omen for the US presidential campaign, which indeed turned out in the worst possible manner with Trump now being the president (s)elect. There have been loads of different analyses on the background to this result, including my own. Today, it is still unclear how big a role the Russian meddling played in the election result, be it directly or indirectly. However it seems increasingly clear that at best an erratic crony capitalist has been elected and at worst a Russian poodle with kleptocratic and power hungry ambitions.

The last year has also been a year of shame for the international community with the paralysis regarding Syria, aided by Chinese-Russian blocking of the UN security council. This has allowed the Assad regime to continue the war on its own population, most recently with the horrendous bombardments of Aleppo. Last years hardening attitudes towards refugees fleeing to Europe from these and other atrocities lead to a Faustian deal with Turkey, whom the EU payed to close the borders to mainly Syrian refugees. The botched coup in Turkey followed, leading to a brutal crackdown on opposition in general and Kurdish people in particular has made our reliance on Erdogan and his thugs even more unpalatable, as politicians all over Europe have bought domestic tranquility by closing our borders.

The brutal terror attack in Nice and just the other day in Berlin again shows how vulnerable an open society is to those who feel  threatened by a liberal and inclusive society. But if the response is to turn away from openness and freedom to a protected but illiberal society, we are lost. The more we build walls around us, the more we build walls between us, just the way that both oppressive right wing groups and militants in the name of Islam wants us to do.

Close to home, the continued Russian military aggressiveness and buildup of arms including nuclear capacity in the Baltic area is an increasing threat to primarily the Baltic states. However, any conflict in the area is likely to involve also Sweden. Considering what we have learned about potential Russian involvement in the US election and the Russian willingness and capacity to brutal involvement in Syria, increased spending on Swedish defence seems to be a sad necessity.

In the real physical world, temperatures kept rising, causing an unprecedented bleaching of corals killing large parts of the Great Barrier Reef outside Australia. Dead reefs are home to no fish, thus this is a direct threat to a main protein source for people living in the tropics but of course also a long term biodiversity catastrophe. At the top and bottom of the world, the collapse of both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice continued, taking us into completely unknown territory. For Christmas, the forecast for the North Pole in the midst of the polar winter is an astonishing +25°C above normal! What this will mean for both weather patterns and rapid sea level rise I guess we will soon realise.

An animated GIF showin this years collapse of polar sea ice

All concluded 2016 leaves a bad legacy and not much reason for a turning to the better in the short term, nor at present a good prognosis in the long run.

So what to do in these dark times on this dark day? Reading dystopian fiction may sound as a way of rubbing salt in ones wounds but it may actually be a way of understanding where we do NOT want to go. Fiction is sometimes a better way to envision the future than facts and figures, both in negative and positive ways.

There are a number of classic examples of dark future fiction, such as George Orwells “1948”, Aldous Huxleys "Brave New World” and in Sweden, Karin Boyes “Kallocain”. Common to them are the subduction of the individual to state and corporate power, using a combination of force and other means of subduction. While it is clear that these books were written as warning signs, there is a risk that we see fiction, both literature and movies, as portraying an inevitability of events. However, we can use them for backcasting - if this is not where we want to go what do we have to do? Which are the roads we need to not take, what are the societal tipping points we must avoid.

To me, two recent short books serves this case well: "The Collapse of Western Civilisation - A View from the Future" by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway and “Splinterlands" by John Feffer. “Collapse” is written as a scholar essay by a Chinese academic on the 300th anniversary of the Great Collapse, describing how the children of the Enlightenment―the political and economic elites of the so-called advanced industrial societies―failed to act on climate change, and so brought about the collapse of Western civilisation.

“Splinterlands” tells a story of a world in 2050, where the EU has broken apart and great powers like Russia and China have shrivelled. America's global military footprint has virtually disappeared and the United States remains united in name only. Nationalism has proven the century's most enduring force as ever-rising global temperatures have supercharged each-against-all competition.

So what can we learn from these stories? If we change the climate the climate will change us beyond recognition and it is far from sure that we who live in the developed western world will come out on top. The people who advocate the armed life boat strategy have not understood the scale of what will hit us from changing climate. When food gets scarce and land flooded, people will not stay put. No walls will in the long run protect us if Antarctica melts.

After reading this you might ask where is the hope? But hope is not a given, it is also something we can create by our actions. I have long said that I am dystopian but with positive attitude. To convey what we need to do, we will need storytelling and good examples. I have previously written about Ernst Shackleton and his find solutions / never give up attitude and I still consider him a good example . But we also wisely need to choose the battles we engage in.

To me, we have three important tasks ahead. The first is that we must strive to very rapidly transit to a carbon neutral, solar and wind powered energy system! This is absolutely necessary to combat climate change but it also has a huge political impacts. A major factor that links Putins Russia and the coming Trump regime is the dependancy on fossil fuels, as clearly shown by the proposed Secretary of State being a CEO of a Big Oil company. Transitioning away from coal, oil and gas will wrestle away power, wealth and influence from Putin and Trump as well as the oppressive regimes in the Middle East. You can’t buy stocks in the sun! But we as consumers and professionals as well as citizens can and must push this transition, at home, at work and by pressuring our politicians. Getting of fossil fuels is an act of both decency and a political statement.

The second task is to shore up our defences in forthcoming elections. This applies to coming elections in Germany, to the 2018 election in Sweden and to the mid term elections in USA. As to the latter, Nevada is a good example showing that political ground work can pay off. Today in a podcast with @summerbrennan (LINK) I also heard about Brand New Congress a plan to bypass the traditional parties and undo the gridlock congress. In Sweden, we must find ways to avoid falling into the populist and nationalist trap, showing that the solution that the “Sweden democrats” put forward are just illusions of little value. More on that topic later.

The last task is more personal. 2016 was a year when we also lost a lot of great artists, such as David Bowie, Prince and Leonard Cohen, to name just a few. However, the songs they have written are still with us. We can use them for the third important task, to be more listening, open and caring to near and dear as well as more distant relations. That attitude is a true threat to the dark forces that wants to sweep us away. Not being religious, I still think that is a message that resonates well with Christmas time.