Going viral 2 - Corona, climate and collapse

My previous blog post was about Corona, how we stumbled into a pandemic and why some countries more than others (especially USA) have missed the opportunity to contain the crisis.

Even though we are only in the beginning of the Corona pandemic, there are already lessons to be learned and parallels to be drawn. Some of them relate to the connection between Corona and climate change. It is clear that the decrease in emissions due to lowered industrial activity have had a marked impact on CO2 emissions. Furthermore, it might well be that the reduction in particle emissions due to reduced traffic and combustion actually savedmore lives than those killed by the virus (which of course is not a good way to solve the pollution problem).

There are of course also economical effects. The slowdown in transports from both less cars and trucks on the ground and far fewer flights in the air has caused plummeting sales of cars. Airlines are bleeding economically and some are going bankrupt. Still, the long term effects on travel might be even bigger. The big pharma company AstraZeneca was already far ahead before this crisis, conducting 20,000 video and telephone meetings per week. Others will now need to adapt quickly and rapidly start to move towards a non-travel meeting culture. What the lasting effects on business travel patterns will be remains to be seen. But it is unlikely that once companies have gotten used to running virtual meeting they will go back to spending money and their employees time on long flights for short meetings. So even if the corona crisis eventually subsides, the airline industry  might not make a full comeback. 

Presently central banks and governments are pouring money into the financial system in order to shore up companies whose business has came to a standstill due to the pandemic. But as the airline example shows this may well be throwing good money after bad. We need transformation not return to an outgoing business model that is not compatible with a liveable climate. It’s not only a question of emissions and pollution. Anthropogenic climate change and biodiversity destruction is one of the factors behind pandemics with a zoonotic cause, as habitat destruction and increasing temperatures are pushing wildlife too close to humans. Ebola, SARS, MERS and Covid19 all have a common denominator in that it was a disease that jumped from animals to humans. Still, we fail to see this link, but also don’t grasp that while Corona infection is an imminent threat, climate change is already the big disruptor which will only get more dangerous in years to come.

While coronavirus is understandably treated as an imminent danger, the climate crisis is still presented as an abstraction whose consequences are decades away. Unlike an illness, it is harder to visualise how climate breakdown will affect us each as individuals.

There is another link between Corona and climate change. Despite a likely reduction in CO2 due to less energy used, the reduction in aerosols can paradoxically result in a jump in temperatures, since the particle formed during combustion shields some of the incoming sunlight. Considering the already hot start of 2020, with the warmest winter on record in Europe while Australia endured record heat, droughts and fires, even an small increase in temperature could be very bad. A worst case scenario would be that in the summer we are hit by heatwaves and droughts at a time when both public resources and population have been worn down by the Covid19 pandemic. If so, there is a huge risk that this would lead to calls for "strong leaders" when it is instead strong leadership we need.

Trump will veer toward the edge of the cliff here and his cult of followerswill go with him. There’s no choice now for the Trump faithful. To admit he is incompetent and at all responsible now would be a devastating blow to their reality that might destroy their lives. There will be vast conspiracies, drumbeats of unnecessary war, scapegoating of political rivals, and a demonization and dehumanization of vulnerable populations.

And while most people are showing responsible behaviour and are willing to accept sacrifices for the common good, solidarity seems to disappear with increase wealth, as the super-rich jet off to disaster bunkers amid coronavirus outbreak. So what do we need to do in order to change the course we are on? Stay tuned, this is a crisis to good to be wasted! 

Let the Boomers be grounded!

The Boomers (or Baby Boomers) is the generation born from 1945 up till about 1960. I am myself a part of this generation, albeit being born on the trailing edge. This was the generation that benefited from the rebuilding of broken societies after the second World War. Growing economies, from trade and new technologies brought affluence and created a new middle class that could enjoy the consumer society and travel in a more open world. 

Of course not everything was good. Wars were still being fought, in Vietnam among many other places. Nations were invaded, democracies crushed in both East and West, partly due to the Cold War confrontation that kept nuclear annihilation as a Damocles sword over our heads. Nevertheless  this was a period when it was natural to be living a both healthier and richer life than the previous generation. 

Most of the boomers are now entering retirement and many are economically well off. They have benefitted from a growing wealth during their working life, but also just from the passive wealth growth coming from owning a house that has increased in value. So now they want to enjoy life, travel, play golf in Spain and fly to Thailand or the Caribbean to avoid the winter cold. Sadly, that is a privilege they (we) can not be granted due to our collective failure to ensure a liveable future for our children.

The climate crisis is very much about equity in a very double meaning; both fairness and wealth. It’s a question about levelling the economical gap between countries, between the rich and the poor, ensuring that developing countries are given some opportunities that the richer countries took for granted. But as the recent youth activism by Greta Thunberg and her followers have shown, it is also very much a generational question, where the financial equity that the boomers have built up largely has been charged to a planetary credit card that is about to expire, leaving the debt fully for todays children to pick up.

Therefore I think it is time to ground the boomers and that includes myself. We’ve hade our glorious time and did not do enough to leave a stable climate for coming generations, so at least we know should step back and not continue to wreck the planet. Do I want to ban them/us from travel and trips abroad? No, because you learn from travelling and meeting other people. But we need to drastically reduce our carbon emissions in ALL sectors of society and for individuals flying can be the largest contribution of greenhouse gases. And for retired boomers, if they have the funding to travel they should have the time to travel on the ground. Take the train, make the journey into an experience, see what you might have missed during your active working life. In Europe, many of us spent summer vacations using the Interrail train pass to visit all corners of our continent. That is still possible and would also create a market demand for more and better trains, which everybody would benefit from. 

I would like coming generations to have some possibilities to travel to far off countries. There is no reason that boomers, who have had it all, should spoil the chances for their kids and grandkids to experience what they did. So, let’s ground the boomers! And while on ground, it is very overdue time for this generation to (again) become activist and fight for stable climate and a good future for coming generations! That will also ensure that the great-grandchildren will be able to say with pride that their ancestors cared for them.   

Children should be seen and heard, from David Suzuki foundation

Girls and climate change

Last week it was confirmed that 2017 was the second warmest year measured globally and also the warmest without El Nino. Climate change / global warming is in full swing…  

We know that 2017 was one of the costliest years with plus U$300 Bn losses in the US alone. But there are other effects of the accelerating climate change that severely affect people and especially young girls in poor countries. For many families, extreme weather that destroy their livelihoods creates desperate situations. This cause them to marry off their daughters, often with devastating consequences for these girls.

Take the example of Bangla Daesh as described in a recent New York Times article by Nick Kristof. For a father whose home and land has been swallowed by the rising seas, the means to keep his daughter in school are no longer there. Nurul Haque may have to pull his daughter, Munni Akter, 13, out of eighth grade and marry her off to an older man looking for a second or third wife.  “I don’t really want to marry her off, because it’s not good for girls, but I’m considering it.” He insisted that if it weren’t for the rising waters and his resulting impoverishment, he wouldn’t think of finding a husband for her.

For every girl that is forced to quit school and be forced into marriage with an often older man it’s a catastrophe for her, especially since this will often result in having to many children far to early. But it will also cost developing countries trillions of dollars by 2030. Ending child marriage will instead keep girls in school and we know that educated women have fewer children later in life, which will increase women’s expected earnings and welfare for both them and their children.

Therefore, education of girls and women is instrumental to create development and prosperity. But we also need to combat climate change in order to enable all girls to receive a good education.

Trump has made the fight for a liveable climate personal

The past six months have been a tsunami of news from, with and about Donald Trump. The flow of "fake news", invectives and ignorant statements has been so exhaustive that it eventually becomes difficult to get upset about what comes across Trumps lips or is delivered via his tweets. But it is important that we do not let ourselves be normalized by a president who seems to have come to power in a very dubious way and whose admiration for other despots is only matched by his dirty financial business.

It is not possible to say that Trump's destructive policy and attempting to throw the United States back to a bygone era has had any positive impact. But I think that his way of declaring the withdrawal from the Paris agreement has led to something new. The way he did it, by not talking about the climate but instead in a bombastic, ignorant and indifferent way proclaiming "America first" is so trivial and shows so clearly that he's really a toddler and not one of the world's leaders.

Perhaps it was the arrogant way he pronounced the withdrawal, at the same time rejecting the agreement and wanting to renegotiate it to get a better “deal" that seem to have infuriated other world leaders and led them to almost unison  condemnation (Teresa May’s bleak statement is probably due to that she does not have that many friends left). From Macron, who rhetorically elegantly turned Trump's argument against him stating "Make Our Planet Great Again”; to the Vatican state declaring that "Thinking that we need and must rely on coal and oil is like claiming that the Earth is not round” the criticism been massive. India, the EU and China, all have expressed their continued support for the Paris agreement. In equally clearly terms, Trump has been condemned by the media.

It also seem as if Trump's arrogance has personally challenged mayors, governors and industry leaders in the United States. A large number of cities and states, with New York and California in the lead, have already declared that they will both fulfil and exceed the goals of the Paris agreement. Outside the coal industry, there are few companies that stand behind Trump, not even Exxon Mobile. It is one of the things that, in spite of Trumps manoeuvring, gives me hope that the conversion from the fossil society that has started can not be reversed, albeit slowed down.

Thanks to Trump, we now also need to make climate a very personal matter. It is obvious that we will not be able to change the path we are as quickly as needed solely by relying on international agreements or overall political statements. Therefore, it is a sign of the times when people begin to take personal responsibility for our climate and “walk the talk" by declaring that they will refrain from air travel. It is as clear an example as becoming a vegetarian for environmental reasons, but ceasing air travel seems to be very difficult and provocative in our part of the world. This is partly due to the fact that fast and comfortable trains (including sleeper train) are not yet widely available. It is usually more expensive and more difficult to catch the train. But someone has to take the lead in order for politicians to dare to change the course, and for this they should be honoured and not ridiculed.

Hopefully, Trump's attempt to fool the world and his crazy belief in building a future on coal can invigorate  both citizens and politicians to a rapid switch to a climate-neutral society. In order for this to happen, we need to think about both what we personally can influence and how we make it clear to hesitant politicians that we are prepared for change. The conversion to a carbon neutral society will not be easy nor free. This will be a challenge for politicians who like to promise reforms now, rather than talking about hard work and long-term issues beyond next term. Perhaps this task will be easier to take on, if it simultaneously becomes a battle against everything represented by a demagogue and fake player like Trump. 

Recharging by the sea as clouds gather in the west

I’m back by the sea. This is where I always go when I need to recharge and be at peace with myself. Watching the ripples on the water surface in the diminishing light from the setting sun, while listening to the blackbirds singing is a way of being present; effortless mindfulness. Tonight I treated myself with some fresh shrimps and a glass of wine as an extra luxury.

As I sat by the beach, I chose to ignore the buzzing from my phone and the “breaking news” signals. But dark clouds started to drift in from the west, as a telltale sign of bad news. This foreboding was correct, because when I picked up my phone as I walked back up to the house the message was clear: “Trump withdraws from the Paris climate accord”. 

The news did not really come as a surprise, more like a verification of the combined arrogance, egoism, ignorance and shortsightedness of the so called president Trump. This action fits well with his lack of empathy with anyone but himself:

"He is the spoiled child of an indulgent father who imagines that what he achieved via nepotism is rather attributable to his own superior qualities.”

He is also a man to always tries to take credit for others achievements and uses everyone else for his purposes. Tonight he claimed to love coalminers and bragged about being elected by the people in Pittsburgh not Paris. But the folks in Pittsburgh were neither pleased nor impressed. In the words of mayor Bill Peduto:

As the Mayor of Pittsburgh, I can assure you that we will follow the guidelines of the Paris Agreement for our people, our economy & future

Climate change is already here and the negative effects are already clearly visible. Trump may be too old, too fat and too unhealthy to himself be able to experience the worst consequences of climate change. But I do wish him to live long enough to see his getaway spot in Mar-Del-Lago be flooded from the rising sea waters. 

For all of us that will be around a bit longer and especially for the children of today and tomorrow, the decision by Trump will be remembered as one man egoism winning over the planet. 

All this said we must remember that the Paris accord in itself would not have saved us, even with the participation of USA. A much more rapid shift away from fossil fuels is needed. But Trumps decision may slow the pace of the necessary transition and dilute our efforts when focus and action is what is needed. Still, there is a chance that we can shift direction in time to a clean energy society and thus a liveable planet, since the economic incitament for going green is becoming so strong. In that case, USA may be the biggest looser in this development:

A global shift to renewable energy is on. There’s no denying it or turning it around. It’s good for business. This is not fake news. It’s real life. And it’s happening with or without you.

Regrettably, ignorance and shortsightedness are not confined to Trump. Just this week in Sweden there was a decision to expand an airport adjacent to a ski resort; a location that has already had problems with lack of snow and mild winter temperatures. Also in Sweden, record sales of (mostly combustion engine) cars was reported. And on my Facebook feed I could see endless pictures posted by a group of acquaintances from their week of shopping spree in New York.

There is an enormous need of leadership if we are going to solve the climate challenge, especially now after the American abdication. Some reason for hope is that there are indications that the EU and China will step up to the plate. This could actually become a huge chance for Europe to find a common positive cause to fight for. Already, the French president Macron has invited scientists and entrepreneurs to move here if there is a lack of opportunities in the USA. 

But to have bold leaders, we as citizens also need to do our part. If we are not willing to abstain from anything there is not a chance that we can transition to a low emission future in time to stabilise the climate. What we must learn as grown ups, in contrast to the toddler attitude of Trump, is that you have to make an effort and sometimes a sacrifice to succeed. As I have written before, the valiant quest is not a simple journey. 

Nattliga tankar vid det stigande havet

Det är till kusten och havet som jag söker mig för att ladda batterierna. Där kan tystnaden fortfarande fyllas enbart med naturliga ljud, stilla vågskvalp, fågelsång eller måsars stilla skrän. När skymningen faller blir det också riktigt mörkt; på avstånd lyser enstaka hus som lyktor i dunklet. Tystnad och mörker ger plats och tid till att reflektera och tänka.

Jag har varit vid denna strand i hela mitt liv, sett hur år och årstider förändrar bilden. På ytan ser det mesta ut som vanligt och en tillfällig besökare skulle knappast lägga märke något ovanligt. Men för mig som har varit här så länge är det tydligt vad som hänt. Vattnet är grumligare, ålgräset glesare och fiskarna färre. När jag var barn och vadade på grunt vatten spratt det ofta till av en liten sandskädda som for iväg undan mina fötter. Nu är det många år sedan jag var med om det.

Det lömska med det experiment vi nu utför med vår planet är att vi ser så lite fast förändringen sker allt fortare. “Mannaminnet” är kort, vi behöver knyta våra hågkomster till bilder och berättelser för att förstå vad vad som händer. Vår svårighet att se förändringen på nära håll gör också att vi lätt missar vad som händer i stort. För oss i Sverige är det också fortfarande så att det mesta och det värsta händer bortom vår horisont. Men även det som händer utom synhåll kommer att drabba oss, det finns inga gränser som håller klimatförändringarna borta.

Arktis är det område i världen där förändringarna i negativ riktning går snabbast. Just idag är det 10-15°C varmare än normalt över Grönland. Istäcket i Arktis blir glesare och tunnare, nya bottenrekord slås hela tiden. Det drabbar hela norra halvklotet, Arktis är vår termostat som reglerar både temperatur och väder. Riktigt vad som kommer att hända den dagen Arktis blir isfritt kan vi inte förutsäga men det finns ingen anledning att hoppas på det bästa. De analyser som börjar komma kring kostnaderna för ett sönderfallande klimat i Arktis hamnar på allt mer svindlande belopp.

Arktiska rådet, som professor Johan Rockström beskriver som ”en av de mest konservativa” aktörer han känner till, skriver i en färsk rapport att jorden står inför potentiella oåterkalleliga tröskeleffekter på Arktis. Om Arktis smälter bort och kollapsar skulle det, enligt Rockström, drabba finanssystemet med en nota i storleksordningen 800 biljoner kronor. En obegriplig summa, storleksordningen Sveriges BNP under 200 år. Kanske är det ändå först när vi börjar se kostnaderna som vi börjar handla.

I Sverige har vi sett oss själva som föregångare när det gäller att vrida samhället i mer klimatvänligt riktning. Vi har hävdat att vi har lyckats bryta kopplingen mellan ekonomi och utsläpp, att det går att bygga välstånd och ändå fortsätta leva rätt mycket som förut. Men de senaste siffrorna från SCB pekar på att detta inte stämmer, att vi har lurat oss själva och låtit oss invaggas i belåtet självbedrägeri. Det är framför allt transporterna på väg och med flyg som har ökat, detta samtidigt som politiker och påtryckningsgrupper vildsint har stridit mot en flygskatt.

Tyvärr är siffrorna trots sitt allvarliga budskap ändå förskönade eftersom de inte tar med utsläppen från importerade konsumtion eller vad vi gör i andra länder under de alltför många utlandsresor som vi gör. Kalla fakta är att vi som tillhör de 10 rikaste % i världen (dvs så gott som alla svenskar) står för 50% av utsläpp världens utsläpp. Skulle den rikaste tiondelen av världen sänka sig ned till hur en genomsnittligt EU-medborgare lever skulle direkt en tredjedelen av klimatutsläppen försvinna. Det finns alltså ingen chans att klara klimatet om vi fortsätter leva som vi gör. Den insikten har än så länge nått ganska få och det är inget som politiker ännu vågar formulera.

Sedan finns förstås de som lever som "the one percent". Då och då dimper det ned ett magasin i min brevlåda. Ja, det ser ut som ett elegant magasin med fokus på boende, inredning och stil, men i verkligheten är det en förklädd reklambroschyr. Det pompösa namnet på denna publikation är “World of ESNY” där akronymen ESNY står för Eklund Stockholm New York. Avsändare är Fredrik Eklund, författare till boken “The Sell” och tydligen en så kallad stjärnmäklare på Manhattan. World of ESNY handlar i stor utsträckning just om “sälj”, att sälja en livsstil som innefattar dyra våningar, dyra varor och snabba resor till jordens alla hörn. Det är som om Fredrik Eklund aldrig hade hört talats om Superstorm Sandy som drabbade New York för fem år sedan. Nästa superstorm kan mycket väl få botten går ur marknaden för dyra våningar när vågorna återigen slår in över Manhattan. Ju mer Fredrik säljer, desto fortare kommer det att gå.  

Ofta sägs att motivationen till att leva klimatsmart ökar om vi lyfter fram fördelarna med ett klimatvänligt samhälle och affärsmöjligheterna med ett mer miljövänligt samhälle. Mantrat är att det skall vara lätt att göra rätt, även när det gäller stora och komplexa frågor som den globala klimatförändringen. Och det finns visst fog för detta, i både forskning och publicerade analyser som tex Espen Stoknes bok What We Think About When We Try Not To Think About Global Warming.

Ett annat exempel beskrevs i ett av vårens avsnitt i den i övrigt utmärkta Klimatpodden där många viktiga berättelser om klimatarbetet har presenterats (disclaimer jag var först att bli intervjuad). Men när jag lyssnade till avsnittet om klimatpsykologi var det något som gnagde i mig. Att rädsla för förändring kan hindra oss är en sak, men det perspektiv som saknades vad makt och pengar, just det som faktiskt förenar Trump och Putin. Deras makt och inflytande bygger i stor utsträckning på fossila bränslen; skulle de aktivt ta itu med det skenande klimatet skulle de snabbt underminera sin egen maktbas. Med Martin Hedbergs ord: Det brinner i bastun och de högljudda fyllona vid dörren har fortfarande för mycket att säga till om.

Kanske har vi kommit till vägs ände både när det gäller att se möjligheterna med grön omställning och att bygga den på individuella val. Vi närmar oss brytpunkter med effekter som vi inte kan inte förutse. Det finns alla anledning till att vara rädd, som Ulla Björksten på vetenskapsradion säger i denna korta reflektion. Om inte det positiva tänkande kan rädda oss är det dags för en ny strategi, med “radikal pessimism” som ledstjärna för att vi skall kunna arbeta snabbt och målmedvetet. Hotet är klart och tydligt, vi har levt långt över våra tillgångar och vår beredskap är inte god. Det skenande klimatet innebär utmaningar som liknar en sorts krigssituation, något som både Pentagon och NATO har förstått. 

Radikal pessimism är inte att ge upp, det är att våga se allvaret i det som är på väg hända och inte hela tiden leta efter billiga utvägar som kostar oss dyrt. Och att i en tid av stora utmaningar våga se förbi skränande populister och fega nationalister som tror att vi kan rädda oss bakom gamla nationsgränser. Vi behöver absolut bättre ledare, men vi får inte bättre ledare om vi själva beter oss som lättledda får, villiga att ersätta framtiden för oss själva och våra barn med förströelse och konsumtion. Till det behövs också en annan ekonomisk modell, kanske i form av Kate Raworth's "The Doughnut".