A cold summer in a hot world

It has not been the best of summers in Sweden. Wind and rain, cold coastal water with more than enough of stinging jellyfishes. Yes, there have been good moments but during my three weeks of vacation by the sea, only two real beach days. I didn't anticipate weeks of Mediterranean weather, but a few warm days in sequence with calm water suited for a long swim is my criteria for a good summer.

Considering that the global climate is getting ever warmer, our cold summer may seem strange. The most recent data show that June 2015 and also the first half of this year were the warmest on record. The “global warming pause” is nowhere to be seen. Instead, heatwaves and droughts have plagued many parts of the world this year. Wildfires are abundant even in Alaska. 

Global temperature deviation from basline

Despite the cold water locally, oceans are also getting hot. Measuring seawater temperature is far more complicated than doing it on land but the trends are clear, vast amounts of energy is warming up the oceans, even more than models predicted. Still, there is one spot in the oceans that deviates from the pattern, the North Atlantic. The cold waters here and the effect this has on ocean currents and weather patterns may be the culprit behind the bad summer in Northern Europe. 

Ocean temperature deviation from normal

Scarily, global temperature hikes and warming oceans have other and more ominous implications than ruining my vacation. Many times climate change deniers cling to the argument “it has been warm before” and that is of course true. What they fail to add to this statement is that earth history gives us clues to what will happen if we continue to warm the planet. 

New data just published compared the current state of the planet with three other warm periods from the Earth’s deep past. In each of these periods within the last 3 million years or so, the researchers estimate that sea levels eventually rose some 6 meters higher than they are right now. Renowned climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues in a new analysis is even more drastic. They gives us a worst case scenario with several meters of sea level rise already by 2070, a mere 55 years from now, when todays teenagers will enter retirement. 

A few days ago I was sailing along the coast. It is to me well known waters, passages I know my way through without the need to look at the chart. But even with half of the worst predictions from these new studies, this coast would be totally different and my knowledge of the waters would be of limited use. Our summer house would change from being "by the sea" to " in the sea”. My heritage from my parents would be lost for my children. 

It would be a disaster but still not really a tragedy for Sweden. For the worlds low laying areas on the other hand, it would be a calamity. Conflict and chaos, refugees and relocations would follow. Already there are many millions of climate refugees in the world, with 3 m of sea water rise parts of many major coastal cities would have to be abandoned. 

The question is if the path we are on be changed? Already we are seeing the effects of global warming and we must admit that it's to late to avoid all consequences. That makes it even more urgent to slow down the warming in order to give us time to prepare for those changes that can not be avoided. It is a huge difference between 2 m of sea level rise in 200 years and 5 m in 55...

In a recent radio program, professor Johan Rockström from Stockholm Resilience Center proposed the term "Planetary stewards” for the task that lies ahead of us. Do listen to this show, the message is frank but he also shows the possibilities to change the path we are on! 

It is easy to be dystopic regarding our future climate and it’s easy to feel despair when you read the constant flow of ever more depressing scientific reports. But to give in is not an alternative, common generations will not want to remember us for that! Today the sun has been shining and the wind blowing. That provides energy, for the grid and the mind.