Across the water

Any one who has sailed a small boat in open water can recognise the feeling of seeing the shore disappear with only blue horizon all around. Even in a good and well prepared boat, with a competent crew, you know that you have to play with the elements, not against them if you want to ensure a safe passage. Still, it is also a sensation of total freedom, as you steer your boat towards a yet unseen port. Then, for most sailors approaching land again just marks the end of a trip that might have been an arduous journey but not a life-changing event.

In recent weeks, we have again and again heard the news of capsizing boats and drowning refugees in the Mediterranean. The people who set out to traverse the sea, going from North Africa to Europe do not have the luxury of a good ship, nor the comfort of a welcoming harbour. They know that their journey means risking their life, from dehydration drifting in a small boat to drowning locked under deck in an old wreck. Also they understand that surviving the crossing is but the first step on a path to a better future. Still they come, because whatever pain, whatever hardship they endure it is better than staying put, be it in war wrecked Syria and Iraq or fleeing from drought and hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Looking back at our own history, when during the late 19th century hundred of thousands Swedes left a poor and hungry country to look for a better life in America, it is also clear that those who set out to leave their homeland for an insecure future are the determined and the motivated, not the weak and complacent. Thus, it is not only bodies, but a tremendous amount of human capital and resources that moves towards us. Clearly, it is not an easy task for Sweden or Europe to absorb these people and provide them with the means to build themselves a decent life and contribute to our societies. Still, in our country we cannot claim a lack of space as a reason to keep people outside our borders.

What we must also understand is that this stream of migrants is just the beginning of a wave, if we do not deal with some of the underlying reasons. And the big elephant in the room is climate change. If we continue with our lacklustre response to the threats of global warming more and more people will have to move. In an interconnected world, the people affected will not stay put and watch us if not thrive in a warming world at least have the means to deal with it. What we don’t know is if it will it be 50 million or 1 billion climate refugees over the coming decades. At present, the best estimates of sea lever rise up till 2100 is around 2 m. That will already create havoc in many coastal regions. Add melting Antarctica and we are talking several meters, I say no more….

The recent earthquake in Nepal can also be linked to climate change, due to both melting glaciers and shifting Monsoon. But even more dangerous than rising seas and trembling ground is the risk that the shear number of disasters is overwhelming us. How many catastrophes can we cope with, as international community and as individuals? The Nepal earthquake rapidly overtook the tragedies in the Mediterranean as prime news. What is the next disaster looming, another mega-Hurricane in the Philippines or devastating fires in drought stricken California? Also on the individual level compassion is not without limits, it is mentally tiring to deal with even small problems day in and day out.

If we loose compassion and capacity to understand why catastrophes occur and how we can mitigate and adapt to them, violence is not far off. This is something that even the military understands. But on the political agenda, it is still more words than action. As I have written before: There is no future regional or global security without a strategy to deal with climate change. But there is also not enough capacity to deal with the monumental task of handling global warming if we have to spend our resources on conflicts, within and between countries.

Therefore, in our part of the world it is a sad story that we once again have to seriously consider the risks of an aggressive Russia, rattling its sabres and threatening its neighbours. It is even worse to understand that doing what is necessary to combat climate change, getting of the fossil fuel addiction, may in the short run increase the risk of regional conflict, as a Russia ill prepared for the future sees its income from oil and gas dwindle. It is hard to buy the loyalty of a people without money and it might be tempting for Kremlin leaders to look for external “enemies”. The death of Russia’s “Silicon Valley” might be short time good news for some companies but very bad in the long run.

So in the end the present and the future is a cobweb of interacting problems, where we can’t focus on one and neglect the others. We need to deal with climate change, it is already here and affecting us more than we care to believe. We need to understand that more refugees will be coming, prepare us for it and give them a fair chance of helping us to build a common future. And we need to have the resources to deter those conflicts that may happen otherwise.